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Introduction:
Though he didn't use the acronym, Herb Kelman explains how BATNAs caused Oslo to break down.
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This rough transcript provides a text alternative to audio. We apologize for occasional errors and unintelligible sections (which are marked with ???).
BATNAs as a Cause of the Oslo Accords' Failure
Herb Kelman
Professor Emeritus, Program on Negotiation, Harvard University
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The other problem with Oslo, and again I think it was inherent-the problem
was that they could not come to an agreement about the final outcome. In other
words they didn't come to a firm agreement not only about the final status
issues, which were the critical issues, but even the concept of a two-state
solution. It was generally understood that that's at the end of the process but
there was no commitment to it, and because of that lack of commitment, two things
happened, in my analysis. First, the leaders maintained reserve options. In the
case of Rabin, the reserve option was: if it doesn't work, to re-institute
control and in the case of Arafat: if it doesn't work, the reserve option was to
re-institute the armed struggle. These weren't just psychological options; these
were options on the ground. In other words Arafat didn't dismantle, he continued
to build weapons beyond what the Oslo Agreement permitted, and he maintained the
viability of an arms struggle of sorts. Rabin certainly maintained the
possibility of reinstating control and we now are in the situation where these
reserve options have become the dominant things but they maintained these
reserve options because they didn't make that final commitment. The other cost
of the reserve option is that they didn't, in a way they couldn't, but they
didn't even when they could have, educate their publics.
It was difficult to educate their publics to a solution, to the reason and
the value and the cost of a solution, which they weren't willing to state,
publicly. Rabin wasn't prepared to say we are committed to a two-state solution
and tell his public here is what that means, here is the price we have to pay,
e.g. settlements, and it's worth it, it's good for us and them, it's good for
peace. He wasn't ready to fully do that. Arafat had no problem with saying a two-state solution but he wasn't prepared to say that this means the end of the
conflict, this means very serious compromises on the issue of the right of
return. He wasn't prepared to say those things. They didn't really educate their
publics properly and bring them along. It was a consequence of the fact that
what was the obvious implication of Oslo was left implicit rather than explicit.
But, again, they weren't ready to make it explicit so the choice was do you have an
agreement with all of these flaws or do you have no agreement? My own feeling is
that I wish they had been more aware of the limitations and done more to correct
for them in the post-Oslo process but I am still glad that they came up with the
Oslo Agreement and I still think that it represents a fundamental breakthrough.
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