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After a conflict has remained latent for some time, if the underlying grievances or frustrations are strong enough, a "triggering event" marks the emergence or the "eruption" phase of the conflict. This event or episode may be the first appearance of the conflict, or it may be a confrontation that erupts in the context of a protracted, but dormant, or low-level conflict.
For example, the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland undertook a nonviolent civil-rights campaign in 1968, after a long hiatus in their conflict with Great Britain and the Protestant majority in Northern Ireland. The police of the Protestant-controlled government broke up nonviolent demonstrations, which were also attacked by Protestant vigilantes. The dormant Irish Republican Army began to organize to defend the Catholic community. Subsequently, the struggle between Catholics seeking to join the Irish Free State, and the Protestants who wanted Northern Ireland to remain united with Great Britain, was violently renewed.
Such triggering events can increase the prominence of particular people, identities, or issues. The event may be perceived as a threat to a particular group's well-being or existence, and old traumas may be aroused, as in Northern Ireland. Past traumas can leave legacies of fear and hatred that can be aroused by political and intellectual figures.[1] For example, Yugoslavia began to break up as Serb nationalism was aroused by accounts of past atrocities and defeats by Croats and Muslims.[2]
Longstanding grievances may also be reshaped by new expectations and threats. This happened in Northern Ireland when the civil rights struggle was reframed into a nationalist struggle over separation versus union. Experiences of oppression and injustice become epitomized and given high importance by particular noteworthy events (for example, Rosa Parks' arrest for refusing to sit at the back of the bus in the racially segregated U.S. South in the 1950s). On the other hand, the privileged are likely to fear the loss of privilege and of the way of life that they have come to feel is their due. (This is precisely why white Southerners felt so threatened by the growing conflict over civil rights, which was triggered by Parks' bold act.)
Modest reformist goals may appear inadequate, in the face of the revelations evident from new encounters with the dominant groups. The goals then are reformulated so that the adversaries are required to make more radical and extreme changes. (See the essay on polarization for a description of how this occurs.) The conflict increasingly is seen by the opponents to be zero sum, so that whatever one side gains is at the expense of the other.
There may also be a series of triggering events, spread out over time. In South Africa, in the 1950s, the struggle against apartheid used nonviolent means. One campaign included large demonstrations against laws requiring blacks to carry pass books. In March 1960, at a demonstration in Sharpeville, police fired on an unarmed crowd of protestors, killing 69 Africans and wounding many more. Nonviolent resistance grew, and the government banned the Pan-African Congress and the African National Congress. These events suggested to Nelson Mandela and other African leaders that some form of armed struggle was necessary.[3] Preparations for armed resistance began, and Mandela and many of his colleagues were arrested, tried, and found guilty. They were imprisoned for life in 1964. An intense and often violent struggle of suppression and resistance then continued for more than two decades, in a severe intractable conflict.
[1] [Volkan, 1988 #623].
[2][Glenny, 1992 #191].
[3] Mandela, 1994 #374].
Use the following to cite this article:
Kriesberg, Louis. "Conflict Emergence Stage." Beyond Intractability. Eds. Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess. Conflict Research Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder. Posted: September 2003 <http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/conflict_emergence/>.
Sources of Additional, In-depth Information on this Topic
Additional Explanations of the Underlying Concepts:
Offline (Print) Sources
Russett, Bruce and D. Kinsella. "Conflict Emergence and Escalation in Interactive International Dyads." Journal of Politics 64:4, November 2002.
This highly academic paper addresses theoretical concerns regarding whether the conditions affecting initial expressions of hostility are similar to the conditions that spur militarized conflicts. By examining dyadic interactions between 1951 and 1992, the authors apply their findings regarding conflict causation to theoretical models of the conflict process.
Kusztal, Iwona. "Discourses in the Use and Emergence of Organizational Conflict." Conflict Resolution Quarterly 20:2, 2002.
"Four discourses in use were identified in a grounded theory study of organizational conflict. This article discusses how these different discourses in use were involved in the emergence of organizational conflicts. Discourses in use determine what conflicts arise in the organization and how they are understood and managed. In this article, the practical implication of this approach for assessing and managing conflict processes in organizations is considered."
Kriesberg, Louis. "Emerging Conflicts." In Constructive Conflicts: From Escalation to Resolution, 2nd Edition. New York: Rowman and Littlefield, November 2002. Pages: 58-99.
This chapter discusses the facts contributing to the emergence of conflict. It examines the role of identities and grievances, how contentious goals are formed, and the importance of actors believing their goals are reachable to result in conflict emergence.
Kriesberg, Louis. "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability." In Grasping the Nettle: Analyzing Cases of Intractable Conflict. Edited by Dosi, Giovanni, ed. Washington D.C. : U.S. Institute of Peace, April 30, 2005.
The chapter reviews factors that contribute to intractibility at each stage of a conflict. In addition, it discusses steps that may be taken to reduce the sense of intractibility.
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Examples Illustrating this Topic:
Online (Web) Sources
Lund, Michael. Kosovo Chronology. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Kosovo/kosovo.pdf.
This essay chronicles the Kosovo conflict. It gives a history of the area beginning with WWI and ending in March of 1999. The essay focuses on the 1980s and 1990s when Kosovo went from a period of unstable peace, to crisis and resolution.
"Moldova Narrative: Origins and Background Conditions of the Moldova / Niester Conflict." Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS), 1900.
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Moldova/moldova.pdf.
This essays offers insights into the Moldova Niester conflict by: providing historical facts about the area; explaining the multi-dimensional cultural and social aspects of the conflict; and detailing the emergence of the conflict following independence from Soviet Russia.
The Case of Moldova. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Moldova/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Moldova conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
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Audiovisual Materials on this Topic:
Online (Web) Sources
The Mideast: A Century of ConflictPart 2: The Balfour Declaration and the British Mandate. NPR. October 1, 2002.
Available at: http://www.npr.org/news/specials/mideast/history/index.html.
This audio clip discusses the creation of Israel under British control in Palestine. Violence broke out between the Zionist settlers and the indigenous Palestinian Arabs from the very beginning.
Offline (Print) Sources
Iran, Veiled Appearances. Directed and/or Produced by: Michel, Thierry. First Run Icarus Films. 2002.
This film depicts various members of the Iranian community as they relate their insights and stories concerning the conflict between extreme fundamentalists and young people, who are pushing for social change. Click here for more info.
Rwandan Nightmare. Directed and/or Produced by: Gallimore, Simon. First Run Icarus Films. 1994.
This video argues that the recent genocide in Rwanda was the consequence of a political power struggle, rather than of ethnic hatred. Click here for more info.
The War at Home . Directed and/or Produced by: Brown, Barry. First Run Icarus Films. 1979.
This documentary film explains how the Vietnam peace movement emerged in the United States and subsequently escalated into a domestic conflict that embroiled all members of this nation. Click here for more info.
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