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It has become common to describe conflicts as passing through a series of phases.[1] Different authors name and describe these stages differently, but most include, at a minimum:
These phases are frequently shown on a diagram that looks something like this, although the accompanying text will always explain that the progress from one stage to the next is not smooth and conflicts may repeat stages several times.
These stages are described briefly in this introductory essay, and then each is discussed in more depth in other essays.
The potential for conflict exists whenever people have different needs, values, or interests; this is the "latent" conflict stage. The conflict may not become apparent until a "triggering event" leads to the emergence (or beginning) of the obvious conflict. Emergence may be followed quickly by settlement or resolution, or it may be followed by escalation, which can become very destructive.
Additional insights into conflict stages are offered by Beyond Intractability project participants.
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Escalation, however, cannot continue indefinitely. De-escalation can be temporary or can be part of a broader trend toward settlement or resolution. Or escalation may lead to a stalemate, a situation in which neither side can win. If the pain of continuing the conflict exceeds that of maintaining the confrontation, the parties are in what Zartman calls a "hurting stalemate,"[2] which often presents an ideal opportunity for negotiation and a potential settlement. Finally, if and when an agreement is reached, peacebuilding efforts work to repair damaged relationships with the long-term goal of reconciling former opponents.
Some scholars add other phases to this list. For intractable conflict, in particular, Kriesberg adds failed peacemaking efforts after escalation, and institutionalization of destructive conflict after that.[3] This latter stage is closely linked with the hurting stalemate.
Alker, Gurr, and Rupesinghe distinguish between six phases:
- dispute (equivalent to conflict emergence);
- crisis (equivalent to escalation);
- limited violence;
- massive violence;
- abatement (equivalent to de-escalation); and
- settlement.[4]
These stages are similar to those set out by the Complex Emergency Response and Transition Initiative (CERTI) project:
- conflict,
- crisis,
- chaos,
- complex emergency,
- recovery.
The related Health as a Bridge for Peace (HBP) project defines five phases:
- impending crisis,
- outbreak of violence,
- war,
- post-crisis, and
- stable peace (which is one stage beyond the final phase of the first list above).[5]
All of these models are idealized. Actual conflicts usually do not follow a linear path. Rather, they evolve in fits and starts, alternatively experiencing progress and setbacks toward resolution. The lack of linear progress helps to give the conflict a sense of intractability. Escalation may resume after temporary stalemate or negotiation. Escalation and de-escalation may alternate. Negotiations may take place in the absence of a stalemate. However, these models are still useful, because most conflicts pass through similar stages at least once in their history.
Delineating different stages is also useful in efforts to resolve conflict. By recognizing the different dynamics occurring at each stage of a conflict, one can appreciate that the strategies and tactics for participants and interveners differ depending on the phase of the conflict.
A diagram by the Health as a Bridge for Peace (HBP) project[6] illustrates both their and the CERTI stages of conflict, linked to appropriate response measures. One can quibble about the relationship between the outside (white) circle and the inside (blue) circle. Many scholars and interveners, for instance, would argue that peacebuilding should take place all around the circle, with the possible exception of the stable peace phase, by which time peacebuilding has become institutionalized and is done as part of everyday life.
We note that the stage of a conflict is determined subjectively by those involved. Some participants may see the conflict as escalating, while others believe it is de-escalating; one side may perceive itself to be in a hurting stalemate, while the other side believes it can prevail through continued force. Determining each party's assumptions regarding the stage of the conflict is thus important, before one can design a conflict management, transformation, or resolution strategy.
In addition, Kriesberg observes that the sequence of the phases differs from group to group. "Moderates, hardliners, spoilers, and various other factions within each camp tend to be in different phases of intractability at any given time. Therefore, shifts in the relative size and influence of these factions will produce changes in the conflict's course."[7]
[1] See, for example, Creative Associates International, Inc., Conflict Prevention Guide Click here for full URL.
[2] I William Zartman, Ripe for Resolution (New York: Oxford, 1985/1989)
[3] Louis Kriesberg, "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability" Chapter in a forthcoming book edited by Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson, and Pamela Aall on Intractable Conflicts (exact title as yet unknown), to be published by U.S. Institute of Peace Press.
[4] The Conflict Database, accessible online at Click here for full URL.
[5]Rosalia Rodriguez-Garcia, et al. "How Can Health Serve as a Bridge for Peace?" Available online at http://www.certi.org/publications/policy/gwc-12-a-brief.htm.
[6] R. Rodriguez-Garcia, J. Macinko, X. Solorzano, M. Schlesser. "How Can Health Serve as a Bridge for Peace?" The George Washington University School of Public Health and Health Services. Available online at http://www.certi.org/publications/policy/gwc-12-a-brief.htm.
[7] Louis Kriesberg in a draft version of "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability" a chapter in a forthcoming book edited by Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson, and Pamela Aall on Intractable Conflicts (exact title as yet unknown), to be published by U.S. Institute of Peace Press.
Use the following to cite this article:
Brahm, Eric. "Conflict Stages." Beyond Intractability. Eds. Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess. Conflict Research Consortium, University of Colorado, Boulder. Posted: September 2003 <http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/conflict_stages/>.
Sources of Additional, In-depth Information on this Topic
Additional Explanations of the Underlying Concepts:
Online (Web) Sources
Sandole, Dennis J.D. "Comprehensive Mapping of Conflict and Conflict Resolution: A Three Pillar Approach, A." , December 1998
Available at: http://www.gmu.edu/academic/pcs/sandole.htm.
This article attempts to develop a framework for mapping intrastate conflicts. The comprehensive mapping of conflict and conflict resolution proposed here is based on the assumption that "mapping" any particular conflict in terms of various categories -- e.g., (i) conflict; (ii) conflict causes and conditions; and (iii) conflict intervention perspectives and processes -- constitutes a preliminary step to designing and implementing an effective intervention into it.
Noll, Douglas E. "Conflict Escalation: A Five Phase Model." , November 2000
Available at: http://www.mediate.com/articles/noll2.cfm.
The author lists five phases of conflict escalation, and argues that as conflicts escalate through various stages, the parties show behaviors indicating movement backward through their stages of emotional development.
"Five Stages of the Public Peace Process." , January 1998
Available at: http://traubman.igc.org/pubpeace.htm.
This short article explains that the public peace process is based on the assumption that there are things government can do that people cannot; and there are things people can do that governments cannot. Public dialogue and action is based on the assumption that citizens have the freedom to be innovative and to create new, deeper relationships. While governments are the official bodies that make peace agreements, newer ideas and sustainable implementation depend on public consent and involvement. Thus, citizens have a critical role in peacemaking, sometimes called "citizen" or "track two" diplomacy
Glaser, Tanya. "Process: The Dynamics and Progression of Conflict -- Summary." University of Colorado Conflict Research Consortium, 1900.
Available at: http://www.beyondintractability.org/articlesummary/10359/.
This page is a summary of a chapter in Building Peace, by John Paul Lederach. In this section entitled Process: The Dynamics and Progression of Conflict, Lederach adopts mediator Adam Curle's matrix for describing the progress of conflicts in terms of the balance of power between the parties, and the degree to which the parties are aware of their conflicting needs and interests.
Glaser, Tanya. "Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement - Book Summary." University of Colorado: Conflict Research Consortium, 1900.
Available at: http://www.beyondintractability.org/booksummary/10477/.
This is a summary of the book Social Conflict, by Dean G. Pruitt and Sung Hee Kim. In the work, the authors describe how people engage in social conflicts. The authors describe the sources of conflict, identify five basic conflict strategies, and explore processes of conflict escalation and resolution. (This summary refers to the first edition of the book.)
Offline (Print) Sources
Kriesberg, Louis. Constructive Conflicts: From Escalation to Resolution, 2nd Edition. New York: Rowman and Littlefield, November 2002.
This volume discusses the catalysts and phases of conflict as well as the processes of conflict resolution. It identifies the complexities of constructive conflicts and outlines case studies of intractable conflict moving towards resolution.
Kriesberg, Louis. "Nature, Dynamics, and Phases of Intractability." In Grasping the Nettle: Analyzing Cases of Intractable Conflict. Edited by Dosi, Giovanni, ed. Washington D.C. : U.S. Institute of Peace, April 30, 2005.
The chapter reviews factors that contribute to intractibility at each stage of a conflict. In addition, it discusses steps that may be taken to reduce the sense of intractibility.
Tillett, Gregory. Resolving Conflict: A Practical Approach, 2nd edition. Oxford University Press, 2000.
This book examines practical methods of conflict resolution to be applied in the political, business, and personal arenas. There is a focus on what approaches are appropriate for different stages of conflict.
Zartman, I. William. Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa (Updated Ed.). Oxford: Oxford University Press, January 1, 1989.
This study examines the causes and nature of African conflict and addresses the issue of how foreign powers can contribute productively to the management and resolution of such conflicts without resorting to the use of military force. The book focuses on four case studies of local conflict and external response (Western Sahara, the Horn of Africa, the Shaba province in Zaire, and Namibia) to assess various approaches to conflict management, and offers guidelines for identifying the ripe moment for effective external response.
Pruitt, Dean G., Jeffrey Z. Rubin and Sung Hee Kim. Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate, and Settlement, 2nd Edition. New York: McGraw Hill College Division, January 1, 1994.
This work explores the dynamics of conflict escalation, focusing on tactical considerations of conflict strategies and their potential outcomes. It also goes beyond escalation to discuss stalemate, de-escalation, problem solving, and third-party intervention. Click here for more info.
Deutsch, Morton. The Resolution of Conflict: Constructive and Destructive Processes. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1973.
This work provides a set of theoretical essays and research papers that deal with the nature of conflict and discuss various strategies for resolving conflict. Coming from the point of view of social psychology, the author focuses heavily on the concepts of cooperation, competition, and trust in explicating constructive and destructive conflict resolution processes. Click here for more info.
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Examples Illustrating this Topic:
Online (Web) Sources
"Understanding Conflict and Peace." , 2002
Available at: Click here for more info.
"The Greater Horn of Africa suffers from ongoing conflicts and tensions. The degree of conflict varies from country to country: dealing with conflict in the Greater Horn ranges from stopping active wars to protecting and strengthening peace so that violence is not triggered." This article discusses processes of conflict escalation and addresses issues inherent in attempting conflict prevention and resolution in the Horn of Africa. Sections include levels of conflict and peace, determinants of violent conflict or peace, and violent conflicts: emergence and cessation.
Indurthy, Rathnam. "Kashmir Between India and Pakistan: An Intractable Conflict, 1947 to Present." , 2003
Available at: Click here for more info.
This case study describes the different stages of the Kashmir conflict from emergence, to stalemate, to failed peace, to escalation.
The Case of Chiapas. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Chiapas/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Chiapas conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of El Salvador. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/ElSalvador/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the El Salvador conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Guatemala. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Guatemala/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Guatemala conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Kashmir. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Kashmir/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Kashmir conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Kosovo. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Kosovo/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Kosovo conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Mizos. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Mizos/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Mizos conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Moldova. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Moldova/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Moldova conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Mozambique. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Mozambique/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Mozambique conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Rwanda. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Rwanda/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Rwandan conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Sierra Leone. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: Click here for more info.
This site offers a diagram of the Sierra Leone conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
"The Case of South Africa." Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS), 1900.
Available at: Click here for more info.
This site offers a diagram of the South African conflict by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Sudan. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Sudan/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the conflict in Sudan, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of the Moros. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Moros/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Moros conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of the Philippines. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: Click here for more info.
This site offers a diagram of the Philippine conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Tibet. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Tibet/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Tibetan conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
The Case of Zaire (Democratic Republic of Congo). Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Zaire/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the conflict in Zaire, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
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Audiovisual Materials on this Topic:
Online (Web) Sources
The Case of Chechnya. Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS).
Available at: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/ir/cews/database/Chechnya/index.html.
This site offers a diagram of the Chechen conflict, by date, episode, and conflict phase. It also supplies a link to a document that gives a narrative account of the conflict.
Offline (Print) Sources
One Island, Two Irelands . Directed and/or Produced by: Meurice, Jean-Michel. First Run Icarus Films. 1998.
This film uses archival materials dating from 1916, to tell the history of Ireland's civil war. Click here for more info.
War and Peace in Ireland . Directed and/or Produced by: MacCaig, Arthur. First Run Icarus Films. 1998.
This film follows the conflict in Northern Ireland through its different stages. It gives a picture of how violence escalated during the 1960s, how negotiations helped ease the violence in the 1980s, and how cease fires in the 1990s brought with them the prospect of peace. Click here for more info.
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